Spurs 110 Heat 95
Every time Miami rests James will be critical. The Heat cannot afford negative minutes during those stretches, and Miami got what it needed from Wade-Cole-Allen-Andersen during 1Q, 3Q, but not during 4Q when the lineup failed to stop Parker-Ginobli-Diaw-Green-Duncan. James was on track for 41-42 minutes until he succumbed during 4Q, and 40+ minutes seems necessary to give the Heat a chance. It looks like Diaw played more minutes than any other Spur, and nearly all of those minutes were positive. Expect Miami to solve that matchup problem (more Battier, probably) or lose the series.